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Global warming: is the increase in average surface temperatures in the world with an increase in the amount of  carbon dioxide methane, and some other gases in the atmosphere.

These gases are called greenhouse gases because they contribute to warming the Earth's surface atmosphere, a phenomenon known as global warming. The increase in average air temperature has been observed since the middle of the twentieth century, and continues to rise, as the Earth’s surface temperature has increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 F) over the past century.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the temperature rise observed since the mid-20th century , while natural phenomena, such as solar flares and volcanoes , have a warming effect. Small from pre-industrial times until 1950 and a small cooling effect thereafter.

Global average surface temperature increased by about 0.6°C during the 20th century, and is expected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C from 1990 to 2100. 

These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of sciences, including all of the National Academies of Sciences in major industrialized nations. 

The environmental model summarized in the IPCC report indicated that global surface temperatures would likely rise by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 ° F) during the twenty-first century . The uncertainty in this estimate comes from using models with different climate sensitivities and using different estimates of future emissions of greenhouse gases . Some uncertainties included how warming and associated changes would vary from region to region across the globe. Most studies focus on the period up to 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100, even if emissions stop, due to the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Increasing global temperatures will cause sea levels to rise , change the amount and pattern of precipitation , and possibly also expand tropical deserts. Glaciers , permafrost , and sea ice are expected to continue to retreat , with the Arctic region being particularly affected. Other potential impacts include shrinkage of the Amazon rainforest and boreal forests , increased severity of extreme climate events , species extinction , and changes in agricultural yields .

The political and popular debate is still searching for the appropriate response to global warming. The options available are to mitigate emissions; Adapting to limit the damage caused by rising temperatures and using climate engineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Convention aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions . One of the proposed solutions is to reduce the use of transportation and anything else that causes the emission of toxic gases .

Forced radiation effects


The Earth's climate changes in response to external forcings, including changes in greenhouse gas concentrations , forcing changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun , changes in solar luminosity , and volcanic eruptions . The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses to other indirect influences mean that the climate may take several centuries or more to adapt to forced changes. Climate studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases remained at 2000 levels, a temperature rise of about 0.5 degrees Celsius would still exist. 

Global warming 

There is a scientific consensus  that the increase in the proportion of greenhouse gases in the atmospheric air is due to human activity, which is the largest cause of the warming measured since the beginning of the industrial revolution , and that the observed warming cannot be convincingly and adequately attributed to mere natural causes.  The past fifty years is the period in which attention and focus were placed on this phenomenon, as actual and integrated measurements began to determine the increase in the Earth’s temperature, even though the issue of global warming had begun to be given attention before that.

Global warming was discovered by John Fourier in 1824, but Svante Arrhenius was the first to quantify this phenomenon in 1896. Global warming can be briefly defined as the phenomenon in which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation leads to heating of the Earth's surface as a result of increased concentrations of Greenhouse gases in atmospheric air.

Natural (i.e. non-human-induced) greenhouse gases have an average warming effect of about 33°C, without which life on Earth would not be possible.

The main greenhouse gases are water vapor , which causes 36 to 70% of global warming (not including clouds), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), which causes 9 to 26 percent, and methane (CH 4 ), which causes 4 to 9 percent. Of global warming, and ozone , which causes 3 - 7%.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has led to an increase in the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide and methane, in addition to ozone in the tropospheric layer , chlorofluorocarbons, and nitrous oxide . The concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 in atmospheric air have increased by 36% and 148%, respectively, since the mid-eighteenth century.  These levels are higher than any value recorded or determined in the past 650,000 years based on data obtained from ice cores.  While some indirect geological evidence indicates that CO 2 values ​​did not reach their current level until about 20 million years ago...  About 75% of the increase in carbon dioxide gas is due to burning Fossil fuels over the past 20 years, while the rest is mostly due to human consumption of natural resources such as deforestation .

The factors causing global warming are still present today, and they are constantly increasing. It is not possible to reduce this phenomenon and control the rate of future increase except through social , technical and natural changes. A special report by the International Panel on Climate Change gave different perceptions about the change in the rate of gas emissions and emissions in the future, indicating that the percentage of CO 2 gas will increase from 541 to 970 ppm (parts per million) in 2100 , especially since fossil fuel reserves will be sufficient In the coming period to reach such levels, if both coal, oil sands and methane hydrates are harnessed and exploited extensivey.

Solar variation 


Solar variation is changes or variations in radiation from the sun . Solar variability is among the suggestions made regarding the causes of global warming , and that climate models may have exaggerated the relative effect of greenhouse gases compared to the solar effect. Despite this, with the use of highly sensitive and advanced methods to measure the solar effect, the effect of greenhouse gases continues to play the largest role in global warming since the middle of the twentieth century.

There has been no increase in solar brightness during the past thousand years.  The solar cycle has caused a slight increase in brightness over the past 30 years, but this effect can be neglected because it is small and cannot be attributed as a cause of global warming. 

The combined effect of various drivers of global warming, from natural climatic effects and solar variations to changes in volcanic activity , may have contributed to warming from before the Industrial Revolution to the mid-1950s, and since then have played a cooling role. The increase in solar activity will lead to heating of the stratosphere , while the increase in the proportion of greenhouse gases will lead to cooling in that layer. Data since 1960 indicate a cooling state in the lower stratosphere. 

Temperature changes 



The Earth's average temperature increased by 0.75°C for the period between 1860 and 1900, according to the mechanically measured temperature record, which shows variations in temperature for atmospheric air and oceans as measured by thermal sensors. It is unlikely that city centers being warmer than their surroundings would have greatly affected this value, as this phenomenon is estimated to have caused a temperature increase of 0.02 °C since 1900. 

Since 1979, land temperatures have risen twice as much as ocean temperatures (0.25°C per decade versus 0.13°C per decade). The slow increase in temperature of the oceans compared to the land is due to the large effective heat capacity of the oceans and because of the greater loss of heat by the oceans due to evaporation. Therefore, the increase in temperature in the northern hemisphere is greater than its southern counterpart because the proportion of land in the northern hemisphere is greater, and the northern hemisphere is covered by large areas of seasonal snow and ice sheets, which is subject to the reverse effect of snow melting, as the coefficient decreases. Radiative recoil in those areas, which means greater heat absorption. Although the emission of greenhouse gases is greater in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, this does not lead to a difference in warming because the effect of the greenhouse gases lasts long enough for the northern and southern hemispheres to mix.

Based on estimates from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest year in which Earth's temperature has been recorded since the late nineteenth century, when reliable and widespread measuring methods appeared, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.While estimates by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia indicate that 2005 was the second warmest year after 1998. Temperatures in 1998 were abnormally warm due to the occurrence of greater Nino was the last century that year.

Expected effects 

Expected phenomena resulting from global warming

  • Agricultural disasters occur and some crops are lost.
  • Increased probability of extreme weather events.
  • Increased forest fires.
  • Floods will increase because large portions of the ice will melt and cause sea levels to rise.
  • Low-lying islands and coastal cities are drowned.
  • The occurrence of droughts and desertification of large areas of land.
  • Increased number and intensity of storms and hurricanes.
  • The spread of infectious diseases in the world.
  • The extinction of many organisms.
  • Many fluctuations in the atmosphere.

Environmental impacts 


Global warming negatively affects the environment and changes the features of the Earth's surface because it contributes to the melting of ice and the rise in sea levels, which causes the drowning of low-lying areas and coasts

Economic impacts 

The report prepared by Nicholas Stern , an English economist, believes that global warming will lead to an economic cost of $500 billion, taking into account all generations (current and future) who suffer the consequences.

  • In 2007, for the first time, the World Disabled Fund included climate change in its Threat List for 2007 on its Risk Infrastructure Milestones and Action Leaders website, and other sites. The main threats were wars, political conflicts, and illegal industrial and urban development.
  • In 2012, the first Munich report dated 17 October 2012 (for the period 1980 to 2011) finds that North America suffered the strongest financial losses resulting from the weather-related events in 1980, with losses amounting to more than 30 thousand One dead and one billion dollars (878 million euros) for the cost of managing and repairing climate disasters. The same report found that the number of extreme events had doubled worldwide (and more than doubled in Europe).
  • In 2015, economists can no longer provide numbers, but consider the potential cost endless. Henri de Castries, president of AXA, said in May 2015, at the climate summit: “One world + 2°C can be assured again, one world + 4°C will not be.” According to a 2013 World Bank report , annual losses and damages associated with climate events have risen from $50 billion in the 1990s to nearly $200 billion during the last decade.

Responses to global warming


Widespread agreement among scientists that global temperatures are continuing to increase has led some nations, agencies and individuals to take action in response to global warming. These reactions come either by trying to mitigate the causes or by trying to adapt to the changing global environment.

Alleviating the causes 

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

The first global agreement to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases is the Kyoto Protocol, which is a development of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , which was negotiated in 1997 . This protocol now includes more than 160 countries and 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. But the United States and Kazakhstan did not sign the agreement, even though the former is the largest exporter of greenhouse gases globally.

This agreement expired in 2012. Discussions have been underway since May 2007 about a new agreement to succeed the current agreement. 

Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global warming as well as community and regional action to reduce it. Some have also proposed setting a fixed share of global fossil fuel production - the largest direct source of carbon dioxide emissions .

There are also trade actions on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and some attempts to use alternative fuels . In January 2005, the European Union announced the European Union Emissions Trading Project , where companies , in partnership with governments, agree to limit emissions or buy credit from those who emit less than the permissible limit. In 2008 , Australia announced a plan to reduce carbon pollution . US President Barack Obama announced an economic plan to trade emissions globally.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel ( in English : IPCC's ) issued a report stating that there is no specific technology in a specific field that can be responsible for mitigating global warming. There are key practices and technologies in multiple areas such as transportation, industry , agriculture and energy supply that should be implemented to reduce global emissions. They concluded that stabilizing carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and 710 parts per million by 2030 would result in between a 0.6% increase and a 3% decrease in GDP .

Climate engineering 

The use of geoengineering will ensure the balanced development of the natural environment on a large scale to suit human needs. Greenhouse gas remediation , as an application of climate engineering, examines the removal of these gases from the atmosphere by sequestering carbon dioxide .

Adaptation

The effects of global warming are wide-ranging, and therefore there are numerous proposals for global warming adaptation measures in all areas. This ranges from simple solutions, such as using an air conditioner, to large solutions, such as migrating areas threatened by sea level rise.

In agriculture, adaptation involves selecting crops suitable for new climatic conditions. For example, farmers in Orissa , India , grow flood-tolerant Champeswar rice. In Africa, it has been discovered that as rainfall increases or decreases, farmers switch between crops that consume large amounts of water and crops that are drought tolerant .

Proposed measures also include building dams changes in health care and intervention to protect endangered species.

Society and culture

Political response 

United Nations Framework Convention

By 2020, almost all countries in the world have joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The goal of the Convention is to prevent human interference with severe consequences in the climate system .  As stated in the agreement, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere be stabilized at a specified level at which ecosystems naturally adapt to climate change , food production is not threatened, and economic development is sustainable. The UNFCCC was approved in 1992, with no real effect, as global emissions levels have risen since then. Its annual conferences are considered a platform for negotiations at the global level. 

During these negotiations, it encouraged the G77 (a UN lobby group representing developing countries)  to adopt a mandate requiring developed countries to "take the lead" in reducing their emissions. These demands were justified by the argument that developed countries cause more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere than others, in addition to relatively low per capita emissions figures in developing countries, taking into account the expected increase in emissions from developing countries in conjunction with meeting their development needs. 

This mandate continued in the 2005 Kyoto Agreement, which was seen as an implementation step for the UNFCCC. By ratifying the Kyoto Convention, most developed countries have accepted legally binding pledges to reduce their emissions. The first phase of these pledges ended in 2012.United States President George W. Bush's treaty because it "excludes 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from complying with these pledges, and will also cause serious damage to the American economy.In 2009, several parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change issued the so-called Copenhagen Agreement,  which was widely described as a disappointing agreement with modest goals, leading poor countries to reject it. The parties involved in the agreement aim to limit the future increase in global average temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

In 2015, all UN countries discussed the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to keep climate change below 2 degrees Celsius, and the agreement replaced the Kyoto Agreement. Unlike in Kyoto, no mandatory emissions targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Rather, countries were required to set more ambitious targets on a regular basis and re-evaluate these targets every five years. The Paris Agreement stressed the need to support developing countries financially. As of November 2019, 194 countries with the European Union have signed the treaty, and 186 countries with the European Union have ratified or acceded to the agreement. In November 2019, the Trump administration notified the United Nations of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2020. 

Other policies 

In 2019, the British Parliament became the first national government in the world to officially declare a climate emergency, and other countries and states have followed suit. In November 2019, the European Parliament declared a "climate and environmental emergency", and the European Commission presented its European Green Charter through which Europeans hope to make the EU carbon neutral in 2050.

Although the ozone layer and climate change are two separate problems, solving the first problem will contribute more to reducing global warming. It is estimated that the Montreal Protocol, an international agreement aimed at halting the emission of ozone-depleting gases, is superior in impact to the Kyoto Convention, as the latter was specifically designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Montreal Protocol, as of 2017, is said to have provided the greatest benefit on the ground when compared to other measures to mitigate climate change, as these ozone-depleting gases are also powerful greenhouse gases.

Scientific discussion


There is a broad consensus in the scientific literature that Earth's surface temperatures have increased in recent decades, in addition to the fact that this increase is primarily caused by emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity. There is no scientific body at national or international levels that disputes this consensus. Scientific discussion takes place in peer-reviewed journal articles, and scientists are evaluated every two years in IPCC reports. The scientific consensus as of 2013, as stated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, states: “ Human influence is very likely the primary cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th century.

The National Academies of Sciences called on world leaders to develop policies aimed at reducing global emissions levels. In November 2017, a second warning to humanity signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries noted that “the current trajectory of climate change may be catastrophic due to rising levels of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production; “Especially because ruminant animals are raised to provide a source of meat consumption” is “particularly worrying.” In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a special report on 1.5°C global warming, warning that global warming could reach 1.5°C (2.7°F) between 2030 and 2052 if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions is not reduced, thus risking Getting into major crises. The report said that preventing such crises would require a rapid transformation of the global economy “unprecedented in documented history.” In November 2019, a group of more than 11,000 scientists from 153 countries described climate change as an “emergency” that would lead to “untold human suffering” if major transformations are not achieved. The emergency declaration stressed that economic and population growth “are among the most important factors causing increased carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels,” and also stated: “We need bold and radical shifts in economic and population policies.

Public opinion and conflicts


The problem of global warming came to the attention of the international community in the late 1980s. There are significant regional differences in how concerned people are about climate change and how well they understand it. In 2010, just over half of the US population considered this issue a serious concern for themselves or their families, while 73% of Latin Americans and 74% in developed Asia shared this view, and an average of 54% of respondents in 2010 agreed 2015 called it “a very serious problem,” but the Americans and Chinese (whose economies account for the largest proportions of annual carbon dioxide emissions) expressed modest or minimal concern about the problem. In 2011, people around the world attributed global warming more often to human activities than to natural causes, with the exception of the United States, where half the population blamed nature for causing global warming. Public reactions to global warming are growing and there is more concern about its effects, with many seeing it as the worst global threat. In a 2019 CBS poll, 64% of US residents described climate change as a “crisis” or “serious problem,” and 44% acknowledged that human activity was indeed a significant contributor to the problem.

Issues such as ozone depletion and climate change were often confused due to confusing media coverage in the early 1990s, which affected public understanding of them. Although there are some areas of interconnection, the relationship between the two issues remains weak. 

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